When will the 2011 H-1B Visa Cap Reach this year? This is a question I am asked about constantly from my clients. Many of my clients are in what I call a “Transitional Mode.” As the economy slowly picks up, many of my companies are eager to hire talents to work on projects but are squeamish to do so because the slope of market’s recovery is not as steep as they had hoped.
The financial news media has announced that the recession is technically over, however the effect of the recovery has not been felt yet. Reflecting on numbers released by the USCIS, it appears thus far at least, that the H-1B visa cap consumption is very similar to 2009. So, the question remains, when will the 2011 H-1B visa cap be reached?
As of the date of this entry, there has been 4 releases by the USCIS relative to the numbers of the H-1B visa cap reached thus far. I took the liberty to plot these numbers on a graph and I was very surprise to find out that the H-1B visa cap consumption experience has been very linear so far. In other words, the slope of the graph representing the usage of the H-1B visa cap cases is a straight line. Please see graph below. In other words, the market place has been very consistent in the demand for foreign talent . It is my opinion that the demand for the employment of foreign talent is very similar to the demand for domestic talent. Said differently, employers do not favor foreign over US specialty workers as has been demonstrated by the H-1B visa cap experience 2009 and 2010. Please see my previous blog article on this subject. Hence, the slope of the graph representing the usage of the H-1B visa is also a true representative of the employment of US workers in specialty occupations.
Since the H-1B visa usage this year is remarkably linear, It is simple to use this data to project forward the current usage into the future. Obviously this assumes that the demand for highly skilled labor will continue on the same trend as currently experienced. Judging from analysis of financial trends employment of highly skilled labors will lag behind consumer confidence and spending in the market place. Using the slope of the H-1B visa usage so far and projecting forward shows that the H-1B visa cap should be consumed by January 2011.